The fairy tale of predictability

Once upon a time there was a great king who had ruled his country for many years. He also had a beautiful daughter, who grew up with frogs and dwarves, but that is completely irrelevant to this story.

The king had learned to protect his kingdom successfully against invaders and raids and had fought many a battle. He had a big, strong army, so nobody dared to attack; there was peace in his country for a long time. 

But more and more travellers reported incredible changes in other parts of the world.  Previously unknown kingdoms rose rapidly, while others disappeared into insignificance at the same speed.

When such reports reached the royal court he called together the wise men and seers of his empire to learn more about this news from them, because they had always been reliable.

There was, however, little love lost between the wise men and the seers, so the wise men deliberated in a nearby monastery, while the seers gathered in the nearest glass factory. 

The wise men conferred for a long time and after 7 days they sent a delegation to the king. They said: “Oh our beloved King, things aren’t what they used to be. Everything is in flux. What was still valid yesterday is already ephemeral today. Large armies are beaten by insignificant militias and the knowledge of their subjects is more important than treasuries full of federal bonds and put options.”

After 3 more days the visionaries returned and said: “Oh our beloved king, our glass balls and calculations show that our glass balls and calculations are less and less impeccable. Times have changed. Great events no longer cast shadows ahead. The unimaginable and the absurd are gaining the upper hand. The knowledge of the significance of unpredictability has become more important than the predictability itself.” The king became angry at the obvious inability of his wise men and seers to offer visionary measures to secure the kingdom.

Then the court jester took the floor and said: “Oh our King, beloved on all sides. Times are no different now than they were before. The prophets, interpreters and warning voices only want your cash. Just distribute enough glass balls to the tax assessors, the treasurer, your army leaders and officials, and your kingdom will exist forever”.

While the king was still sending heralds to the glass factories of the country, the court jester nipped off to the next principality to prepare the takeover of the kingdom together with the prince.

And as they are no longer alive, they have stopped trying to accept uncertainty and adjust to it today.

Autor: RGE
Übersetzung ins Englische: BCO


  • Original_by_H.D.Volz/
  • Abwärts: Original_by_birgitH/

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